Much like my NRL preview, we will review the AFL season using Happy Gilmore quotes in homage to Bill Simmons's articles. This year, it is tough to separate the sides, and making the eight is more than enough to give you a chance to win the comp, considering how well-rounded so many of the sides are. I've highlighted some obvious positives amongst clubs. Still, I will not harp on the obvious and instead look at potential or overlooked positives. Meanwhile, the negatives are more focused on club shortcomings rather than trying to target players too much. I've also attempted to ignore training the house down type articles and instead focus on players whose statistical output is improving, and their team selection and style will only foster that growth. Once again, the slides are in there, so I have some wiggle room should there be surprises, although it won't save me from any massive shocks. My reviews also get a bit short on the contenders as their talking points get more than enough air time in the media, and I'm only retracing their work. Stick around until the end, where I have also picked finals, which is my sickest work (I guarantee people will hate it). It's not actually that controversial I'm not running for Kane Cornes here.
Me everytime I remember something about a side and have to change my order.
Shooters in the happy place
Everything feels just wrong for these teams.
18. West Coast Eagles
Shooter: ""Everyone seems to be coming around… Well, I'm not Doug!"
This translates to: Everyone is improving except the Eagles.
Positives: Apparently, this Harley Reid guy is a big deal (30 front-page stories give some context to their situation; you telling me Duggan getting co-captain doesn't get papers sold). Everything suggests there will be a focus on pressure, and as younger legs come in, that will be easier to do, but the cattle are not there at this point. They will look for little boosts to offer something they didn't have last season. A healthy Waterman could help the forward line. Another WA prospect, Bazzo, could step up and some starch. Luke Edwards also stepped up towards the end of last season and should continue on that trend.
Negatives: They are in a rough patch where the senior players are just that step too far along, and the youth still need to arrive. In some ways, they are aided by having more successful veterans around than, say, the Kangaroos, but in other ways, like the media pressure and the way the bottom dropped out suddenly with a coach less far along in his process, has left them less prepared.
Expect: A rough season with some bright patches, hopefully with Reid in particular. Some of these young hopefuls could easily step in with nothing but opportunities. Still, at the same time, the pressure of the situation will also ruin a lot of potential. I am picking at straws for something here that explains the 30 front pages.
Slide: 18th- 17th
17. Richmond Tigers
Happy: "You know that mista mista lady? I think I just killed her".
Translates to: We have finally put an end to the contenders at tigerland.
Positives: Immediate positives compared to what's around them is the experienced ruck combo with captain Nankervis aided by Naismith, which a lot of sides around them won't have. Shai Bolton has every opportunity to shine in this lineup. Dustin Martin picking up his 300th game will be memorable, and another mostly healthy season while focusing forward can only help the side. Despite what certain media outlets will tell you, Hopper and Taranto's offerings were on par with previous outings. It's not the packed Giants mids or Tigers premiership sides they were doing it in. Balta and Vlastuin offer some reliable options with upside at the back. Koschitzke has been brought over with Yze, so he believes in his abilities. Yze himself should make for an interesting change and have some decent experience of the situation they are in.
Negatives: The backs and key forwards are tough for the Tigers. Is Lynch going to be able to come back and be a big producer? How much does Dusty need to do? How reliant are they on some of last year's underperformers? There are too many questions here to give them too much chance at finals. Yze's influence will play the most significant role in how well they perform and decide whether bottoming out is the best for all involved.
Expect: The opposite problem to many clubs is that they rely too much on old heads and need more exciting youth around them to put together a decent run. I don't expect it, though; tanking is the better approach.
Slide: 16th-12th
16. Fremantle Dockers
Happy: "I see those finger paintings you bring home. They suck".
Translates to: A lot of misplaced resentment towards a coach.
Positives: Brayshaw is a young leader in the mids but is losing running mates fast. Of course, Serong is still an excellent partner, and the ruck combo of Darcy and Jackson is as good as any. O'Meara and Fyfe are as crucial for guidance as they are for their football. However, big seasons would be welcome despite it being less likely than likely. The side will need unexpected sparks to bring them to life, as the key players are already performing. Clark's development in distribution from the back will be welcomed. Chapman developing as a winger and Amiss becoming a reliable goal threat could quickly improve this side. Oscar Mcdonald coming from the VFL as FB of the year and adding something could be a nice story.
Negatives: AFL media is relentless when a coach is marginally under fire, but I feel there is too much noise around Longmuir for it not to be true. He has only had a small window and fell short at a half chance. Better move him on before we look at the real organisational problems that can't keep players in a place where players might not mind moving and your bigger brother is struggling. Nothing really stands out about them, but unless the old heads turn back the clock (Walters wants a premiership before he leaves), I don't see it happening.
Expect: Much of the same, maybe slightly worse, as teams around them improve. Some players might make a name for themselves either due to the opportunities given or just the lack of spotlight on them currently (that is saved for the coach). Needs to be a world-beating season, or the sack looms.
Slide: 16th-11th
15. Hawthorn Hawks
Chubbs: "It's all in the hips."
Translates to: Mitchell carefully guiding this young team toward success.
Positives: It is a big year for Worpel to return to the side from injury and live up to his promise. Impey and Sicily offer experience and leadership at the back. Plenty of upside for Weddle, and D'Ambrosio could help soften the blow of Jiath being out early. Ginnivan can bring some aggression and could be able to capture the form that saw a 40-goal season two seasons ago. Gunston will be handy to mentor the young forwards, and an entire season for Lewis is needed. Newcombe is in a great position to have a breakout season, while even more will be expected from Nash.
Negatives: Early injuries have diminished my enthusiasm for a big year for them. It looks like Mitchell is doing all the right things, and they are continually improving. Still, I think they need all hands on deck (as opposed to those that do well without their players, a cliche, I know) if they are to offer anything more this season.
Expect: Promising signs and a decent run of form should most of the squad stay fit. It just needs more presence up front or at the back to give it a big shake.
Slide: 17th-10th
14. North Melbourne Kangaroos
Removalist: "You hit that guy" Happy: "He shouldn't have been standing there".
Translates to: Don't be surprised if you catch a few strays from this side.
Positives: Unlike the sides around them, they are starting to get some reliable pieces in each area. Sheezel is the obvious standout, and with continued development, you have a calm presence wherever you put him. If LDU can remain fit, you have a great ball-winner that will make the difference in some critical matchups (read against other lower-table clubs). It's a big year for Will Phillips; indeed, with a coach as good as anyone at bringing along mids, we will see the best from him. Who could forget the AA and three-marker man Nick Larkey? The goals he will bring along with the space for the others could be a real difference maker. Jackson Archer playing a big part in the side feels right.
Negatives: The experience you want on the side just needs to be there. The less said about Thomas, the better. Logue, Zurhaar and Mcdonald could be positives. They are short of proven options in the Ruck, but a few players with significant upsides with whispers of basketball backgrounds. There's a little doing on the defensive end, which will stifle substantial leaps forward, barring an attacking masterclass.
Expect: Clarkson is up to something, and a plan is forming. With the best possible scenario, this club could be a massive climber. Still, the more likely scenario is improvement across the board with some greater veteran presence (Like Hawthorn always did), defence to magically appear and a ruckman to stand up. More excited about them than a few teams ahead despite apparent flaws.
Slide: 18th-11th
The car hit the telecast booth and Happy has to putt injured
Theres a shot but it's unlikely for these sides.
13. Geelong Cats
Nurse: "How would you like a warm glass of shut the hell up"
Translates to: This side might be going away for a bit whether they like it or not
Positives: Before we get too on board, the Cats are done on the bandwagon. Jeremy Cameron is only thirty and still as impactful as ever. Tom Stewart has had career-best numbers (perhaps because he was busier than usual, but still). Bruhn Shows positive signs of filling some of the gaps left behind in the midfield, but it's a big gap. Connor O'Sullivan is someone Cats fans are excited for as a rare higher pick. Oliver Henry building on last season wouldn't hurt, either.
Negatives: Tom Hawkins is 35, Danger, Rohan, Duncan and Blicavs, you name a big performer for Geelong, and they are most likely old. With the fringes around them either not ready or performing well below par, I don't see the immediate pushback towards the finals that others do. I get the big contracts and the need to win now, but it seems impossible. They got their title a season before, which is the consequence; they need to enjoy the occasional big performance from a Cameron or Hawkins while it's around.
Expect: Flashes of brilliance amongst mediocrity. I don't see the remaining superstars of past years doing enough to carry this team to where they would typically expect. It will be okay to rebuild, too. Injuries could compound misery and are hardly out of play.
Slide: 15th-10th
12. Essendon Bombers
Chubbs: "Don't worry about that, made of wood, real sturdy".
Translates to: They might put together a reasonable team, but it's not as sturdy as others.
Positives: They aren't bad. They just aren't good, either. The media attention is finally not on them this season, and their recruitment is decent, all positive signs. Redman has turned into a defensive leader with an AA selection, McGrath continues to grow, and the addition of McKay offers some support. A performance matching last season's efforts in front of goal from Langford will be welcomed. At the same time, a fully fit Guelfi and more development from Perkins could see them chip in a few from midfield. Father/Sons Davey and Wanganeen could be the ones to look out for, with Davey showing something last year. You can always set your watch to Merrett, and I expect no different. Having Heppell around still can help mould some of these players on the cusp. Making the side attend finals and all the talk in the media suggests a lot of embarrassment and shame is made to be felt by the side accused of not caring. Whether that will work is tricky, but if it brings a side together to be more than the sum of its parts, it'll be worth the final ticket prices alone.
Negatives: Draper is a decent No. 1 option, but with Goldstein as second and some injury concerns, their foundations are built on slightly shaky ground. There is not a lot to do up top, either. Wright will have to offer a lot more, and I only put a little faith in Stringer's expiring contract this time. I understand agents and player demands are a thing, but the rule of thumb is that no more than one-year deals should apply if there's no demand. Sure, you risk losing him, but then you dip your toe into FA. It beats having someone take the piss until their final year every time ( I know he is the least bothered professional player about any of this and has done what he wanted to do in the game). It's not like Scott hasn't come up with a forward line out of nothing before (set up an imposing North). They need more star power to give it a shake for the finals. They are also back-heavy compared to their competitors, which may be a competitive point of difference. Still, it is something they could have rectified in trades.
Expect: Them to give a few sides a run for their money, but that lack of key forwards is telling. A solid backline with decent mids gives them a fighting chance, but I think there is too much reliance on borderline AFL-level players. Continued improved recruitment and less media pressure will only help.
Slide: 15th-10th
11. Gold Coast Suns
Happy: "9th green at 9 oclock"
Translates to: Many people will give the new kid on the block a hard time.
Positives: Dimma, that's the headline and the positive. But is that all they need to deliver on all their unfulfilled promises. In some respects, yes, he is undoubtedly an upgrade to Dew (In everything but memes). Of course, I'm going to reel off their stars, Touk Miller, who is back from injury and a player with experience beyond his years. Matt Rowell is the man who lives and breathes footy (literally with that football collection), and Lukosius really turned up last year. Noah Anderson is a player who would be a lot more known had he performed like he has elsewhere. I can see King performing and Ballard becoming an even more significant interception presence at the back. Witts is a great ruckman, and Moyle's development will allow for a one-two punch.
Negatives: The veterans in this lineup are role players, which is not necessarily bad, but with it being a young list, it makes it a weird leadership dynamic. Hardwick's status will bring a lot more attention to this squad than previously, which, for the most part, will be a positive, but it does also bring pressure. A lot of footy in young legs with this squad, and this could bring about injury concerns, particularly with a high-tempo game plan.
Expect: There is real potential for a great year, but I believe it will take time to become accustomed to the new system, and you can expect their best football towards the end of the season, ala the Giants of last year; I worry that injuries could also come into play and with a slow start it could mean next year is the real target.
Slide: 14th- 7th
Negatives: Draper is a decent No. 1 option, but with Goldstein as second and some injury concerns, their foundations are built on slightly shaky ground. There is not a lot to do up top, either. Wright will have to offer a lot more, and I only put a little faith in Stringer's expiring contract this time. I understand agents and player demands are a thing, but the rule of thumb is that no more than one-year deals should apply if there's no demand. Sure, you risk losing him, but then you dip your toe into FA. It beats having someone take the piss until their final year every time ( I know he is the least bothered professional player about any of this and has done what he wanted to do in the game). It's not like Scott hasn't come up with a forward line out of nothing before (set up an imposing North). They need more star power to give it a shake for the finals. They are also back-heavy compared to their competitors, which may be a competitive point of difference. Still, it is something they could have rectified in trades.
Expect: Them to give a few sides a run for their money, but that lack of key forwards is telling. A solid backline with decent mids gives them a fighting chance, but I think there is too much reliance on borderline AFL-level players. Continued improved recruitment and less media pressure will only help.
Slide: 15th-10th
10. Western Bulldogs
Clown: "Hahaha"
Translates to: Teams will have to ignore a lot of outside noise and perform, or they won't get anywhere.
Positives: Looking for positives, they still have the Bont, and he is performing as well as ever. Another full season from Treloar and Libba will soften the blow of not having Smith. JUH in a contract year could see him play to his full potential, while an AA ruck English in his contract year shouldn't dissuade him from continuing a great run. Dale and Daniels show no let-up statistically, but there isn't the level of support you would like.
Negatives: Much of the talk will concern staff changes and Beveridge's future. It just feels like the club has stagnated entirely, and despite the best efforts of a few, it will need more to turn it around. Re-signing some of the off-contract stars could change morale. But there is little doubt that they beat the Dees in that final. This never comes up, and he is elevated to Hardwick/Clarkson untouchable levels.
Expect: There is potential for a good nobody believes in our run, but I don't see it, and the writing is on the wall, and it is the trend to move him on. Perhaps a change of guard around Bev could be enough, and Bont wills the side to something, though.
Slide: 14th-6th
My god what a shot
These teams aren't perfect but they do offer something.
9. St. Kilda Saints
Happy: "365 days until hockey season".
Translates to: This side will be toughening up for finals football, but should they?
Positives: Windhager has the potential to shut down opposition players, and his upside could be a big difference in keeping Saint's final hopes afloat. Wanganeen-Milera could be anything down that wing also and promises as much. Phillipou broke out to become a rising star and again should easily continue his development. Not one of those is over twenty, and you have Max King, still only 23, who will be after a bounce-back year from a shoulder injury. Marshall more than filled the hole left by Ryder this season. Could there be improvement? Sure, but they are not losing because of his involvement. A fit Tim Membrey would take some pressure off King, and Jones returning to the midfield could aid Steele.
Negatives: I really didn't want them in this spot last season. I was so excited, but the room for error this year is minimal. Not that it is rare amongst the sides, but a lot of senior players amongst the squad have had injuries and niggles in the pre-season. While the boardroom movement and potential of Ross Lyon's power play could allow more control and lead to a positive, it could also suggest there are fewer sounding boards. It's more of an echo at the club (only going off the feel of recent moves, nothing to back that up).
Expect: Those young stars will continue building as decent pieces around the side. I think the midfield is held together with tape and goodwill and any injury concerns with King, and they will not operate at the level other finals-level sides can. If it all goes right, they could be in the mix as it's a great combination of young and old.
Slide: 10th-5th
8. Adelaide Crows
Shooter: "Well moron good for Happy...Oh my god"!
Translates to: This team has come up to surprise many people.
Positives: Luke Pedlar finished last season strong, and I see that continuing this season. Reilly O'Brien is in a great position to be a hit-out leader in the competition. Trading up to get Curtin in the draft gives them another imposing defensive piece. Plenty of experience in the middle (more than a few around them) helps calm and direct the side. Speaking of expertise, if Walker's remarkable resurgence continues, it opens up their attack. Rachele, Fogarty, and Thilthorpe are all positioned to improve their returns in front of the goal to help, allowing Rankine to excite.
Negatives: Many of their defenders and forwards are statistically underperforming. However, there is plenty of upside as the majority are young, and they nearly made the finals last time. As obvious as that is to say about a side that fell short, that is more the difference than a poor video review hit the ground running. No doubt, this side makes the finals, but if they do struggle, plenty of sides won't.
Expect: A bit more make or break than they would like. They should've made it to the finals last year, and fairly or unfairly, they still get all the expectations as though they made it without any of the experience or excitement from that effort.
Slide: 11th-6th
7. Port Adelaide Power
Crowd member: "You suck you jackass!"
Translates to: A lot of unsolicited criticism and noise about the club that will only be solved by winning, and it's not making it any easier.
Positives: The usual suspects all return, and that allows for some continuity and should allow consistent results. Zerk-Thatcher joining the defence could add something to their backs after a decent season with the dons (mind the sample size is small), as could Ratugolea, with them both offering decent spoils and interceptions. Horne-Francis should continue to improve with highly touted rookies to pay attention to and quality youth arriving at North. He should be able to concentrate on his game and deliver. Finlayson led the team in goals, and an improvement in accuracy could see him add even more. Georgiades fully fit and could really add to their forward output.
Negatives: Adding Soldo will boost ruck stocks, but he has it all to prove, and the fact that only young rucking options sit behind is a slight concern. As ever, there is reliance on several players who, when fit, no doubt have Port firing, but when without, they bring this side back towards the pack. Given performances, I think Hinkley should be safe, as they don't have the sides that the ones that are besting them in finals do. However, this is a success-driven business, and I can see the axe swinging should the top four not happen.
Expect: More or less the same, just with better sides moving higher, but I hardly think they will perform too much worse, and should players stay fit, they could be up there again. It's a real make-or-break season for Port.
Slide: 9th-3rd
Til the night closes in Terri....
These teams efforts were rewarded but maybe not how they had hoped.
6. Melbourne Demons
Shooter: "I eat pieces of shit like you for breakfast".
Translates to: A serious threat that could go a little wrong
Positives: ignoring the obvious standouts, someone who goes a little under the radar for their efforts is Viney putting up great numbers in an underperforming team. Fritsch has delivered more than his fair share of goals, and an entire season will only help this side. Billings is an excellent addition as a mid-forward who will mark and move the ball well, if not better, in a stronger set-up. McAdam has a good chance to bag some goals on this side. This all takes a decent amount of work off of Petracca, which should enable his best footy, and should Oliver return fit and firing, this is a dangerous outfit. Lever's continuing his excellent work and interception rate and Rivers' continuing his progression with a decent disposal number at the back only strengthens the Demon's case.
Negatives: No doubt the loss of Grundy, whether effective or not, puts more pressure on Gawn to keep his levels up. A few old legs at the back doesn't fill me with as much confidence as other sides' thereabouts, but the hard-working middle and sum of its parts forward more than makes up for it.
Expect: A start that could go one of two ways. The media has been all over Goodwin and this side, which could either help or hinder them. Either way, they should be around the top four close to the end of the season. It comes down to that start. The first game against Sydney will say a lot about whether they are serious or not.
Slide: 9th-3rd
5.Brisbane Lions
Shooter: "That's mine, That's my Jacket...mine"
Translates to: I really deserve this premiership.
Positives: The best years of Cameron & Daniher's careers were last season, with little reason to suggest they won't do the same this season. Further Improvement from Hipwood would take some of the burden off of them. You'd expect Brownlow medalist Neale to feature heavily, although having niggles in the pre-season is not ideal. Andrews is a force in interceptions and spoils that saw him awarded the club's best and fairest. Doedee is a player with a chance in defence that can improve his career with a change of scenery.
Negatives: They are good, but are they good. This is not really a question. They might have some self-doubt climbing the hill once again, and nothing will matter or set things right until the finals.
Expect: A few longer seasons falling short will start taking their toll on this side. They will be thereabouts towards the end with their side. Can they win the premiership? I feel the window is closing more than they realise.
Slide:6th-1st
4. Collingwood Magpies
Bob Barker: "The price is wrong bitch"
Translates to: A lot more fight in this side than people thought and expect them to come out swinging again.
Positives: Newly minted AA and Brownlow favourite Nick Daicos shows no signs of slowing down this season. The bigger question is whether his brother continues his growth, and undoubtedly, the answer is yes. The addition of Lachie Schultz is about the only actual personnel change incoming where we will find out if his significant mark and goal stats were big fish in a small pond or just quality play. I look at Finlay Macrae as someone who could emerge given the opportunity. It should come as no surprise, given last season. Still, if age and statistics are anything to go by, Quaynor will go to another level. Obviously, there is some expectation around repeating. Still, considering the stereotype of the supporters and being a sizeable Victorian club, they don't seem to put the same kind of pressure on repeating that other fanbases do (read, there isn't the same desperation).
Negatives: Not too many, only a few losses to a premiership-winning side; of course, their age and recent success could be met with the usual expectation of complacency that comes with it. But I do doubt that. I would question whether some players are up to performing at the levels they saw, like De Goey, but I have no real reason to think that will be the case.
Expect: This strikes me as a side that will do enough during the season and come alive during the finals, provided they are fit. A genuine chance to go back to back; surprised that many media are questioning it without any real reason.
Slide: 5th-1st
3. Carlton Blues
Chubbs: "Just tap it in, give it a little taparoo!"
Translates to: Don't overcomplicate things and deliver (there is a load of pressure, though).
Positives: Voss is locked in, and he absolutely deserves the renewal. Curnow and McKay offer a significant goal threat and could improve. Cerra, Walsh and Cripps mean they are no less scary in the middle. Kemp is showing promising signs of adding something to an ageing backline. De Koning is likely to improve, given their age and experience, with a potential starting role given Pittonet's output.
Negatives: They are looking a bit old on the defensive end, and it could be something that undoes them when it matters. The need for Weitering and Zac Williams to recover from a significant injury is a slight concern. Although Wilson and Carroll are recent draftees who seem mature beyond their years should the need arise.
Expect: A team that is all set to contend for a premiership. I see little getting in their way and the firepower in the middle and upfront enough to ignore deficiencies elsewhere.
Slide: 4th-1st
Tuesdays gone is playing and Grandma got her house!
These sides got where they needed to be.
2. Greater Western Sydney Giants
Happy: "Uh oh Happy learnt how to putt".
Translates to: A youngish team with their coach's new ideas becoming entrenched makes them competitive.
Positives: A career-best goal year for Jesse Hogan shows he is the most comfortable he has ever been at a club. Toby Greenes staying on the field and delivering when it matters only frees up the rest more. Another big year from Riccardi with Daniels and Bedford helping makes them all the more dangerous and a daunting prospect. The Defense was led by the imposing Sam Taylor. They have excellent proficiency with disposals with Ash and Himmelberg, and I'm expecting Cumming to have a more decisive year as well. Tom Green is primed for a big year and has the supporting cast in the middle to do so. Callaghan is a great shout to have a significant impact on the wing. The side's strength allows senior members like Haynes, Ward and Coniglio to contribute without asking too much.
Negatives: A really well-balanced side that has been boasted by the change in coach. A second-season syndrome could happen with everyone expecting big things, but I genuinely doubt it. Some of the depth could improve, and there is a reliance on Briggs in the ruck.
Expect: Them to build on the last season, and some break-out seasons could lead to a significant charge toward the top 2. However, anywhere in the finals would be acceptable for how the side is building.
Slide: 5th-1st
1. Sydney Swans
Happy: "Happy place, happy place, happy place".
Translates to: The club is back to where they think they belong
Positives: Last year, they set the foundations they should go on with, and they need a few points of difference to give it a shake. Grundy and his ruck work are obvious go-tos for this difference. While the addition of Adams frees up some of the mid-forward workloads for players like Heeney, Hayward (with plenty of reason to perform), Warner and Rowbottom, who already make a large number of tackles and could allow one of any of them to focus on attacking duties and help aid the departure of Franklin. Gulden is undoubtedly in a great position to duplicate his last season, go better than fourth, and win the Brownlow. With Blakey again leading from the back, could go from strength to strength.
Negatives: Sometimes, the sum of the parts does not relatively equal the whole. What they are going to do will more than cover Franklin's absence for the most part. What it does not do is cover his clutch performances in the big games; something given their trajectory will be a big deal. Some more impact from players like Cunningham and Francis could help, particularly with the early out of Mills.
Expect: Another decent season and a real chance to push for the minor premiership should things go their way. Some early adaptation to change in roles and new additions could slow that down a little, but it is still peaking come finals time. A lot to like, and only really contract dramas to detract but ultimately will not impact them.
Slide: 5th- 1st
Finals
Pure Chaos and more a shoot out than anyone being dominant, This could go so many other ways think the final tournament Shooter v Gilmore.
Week one
Swans v Magpies
Giants V Blues
Lions v Crows
Demons V Port
Week two
Bye
Swans and Blues
Lions v Magpies
Demons v Giants
Week three
Swans v Demons
Blues v Magpies
Week four
Demons v Magpies
Champions
Demons
Thanks for reading be sure to keep an eye out for my next AFL piece on the streets won't forget guernseys and teams that are memorable without being champions.
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